By Yousif Zawi
After 101 years since Sykes-Picot agreement, the Kurds are seems to achieve their dream of self-determination thorough a democratic votes in historical referendum. The date declared to be September 25th in a meeting organised by PDK (Kurdistan Democratic Party) and the most PUK (Patriotic Union of Kurdistan) officials on June 7th.
At the beginning the PDK was the only leading party supporting the self-determination, but then the most PUK officials were assumed their historical decision to be out of Iranian pressure, which as all other surrounding states oppose the Kurdistan independency due to the fear of territorial integrity not to be ‘jeopardized’. However, this will be the second case of self-determination throughoutthe history after the Israeli on 1948, with no similarities with the concept and the condition of Kurdistan.
Nothing can hold the Kurds to sacrifice in a failed state with illegitimate constitution, especially with regard to the 140 Article which was supposed to be implemented in 2007.
In other side, staying in non-sovereign state will led us (Kurds) to face another threat worse than ISIS, Iranian supported militia the People’s Mobilization Forces (PMF) (Al-Hashd Al-Sha’abi). Therefore, Kurdistan managed to be faced with economic crisis after cutting of Kurdistan budget since March 2014 by Iraqi previous PM Maliki’s government, followed by ISIS attack on the Kurdistan Region, as well as, Baghdad prevents any international financial support to Kurdistan. This ended the situation to be more and more difficult between Erbil and Baghdad.
In the time that Iraqi weapons lifted in Mosul made ISIS to be the strongest transnational terrorist organisation, the war conclude the Peshmerga forces to be the most important force in the ground, supported by the international coalition forces airstrikes and supervisors. With blood of hundreds of martyrs and wounds, the Peshmerga forces drafted the Kurdistan borders.
Subsequently, after the referendum date has been announced, KRG started to provide suitable environment to achieve the independency. Three over four state elements are available in the case of Kurdistan. Land, People and Government, within the lack of sovereignty which can be delivered though international recognition. Internationally, none of states officially agreed or even support the referendum, even with regards to Israel. The Iraqi Army is a historical threat to Israel, especially with the obvious support of Iran after 2003. The only reason to weaken the Iraqi army is though the Kurds. Even the US desire to delay the Referendum doesn’t have effects until now, it’s clear that if the referendum doesn’t held in its supposed time, the consequences will be more than it’s expected.
Therefore, a meeting concluded on August 8th to reactive the parliament who has been inactive since October 2015 due to political power struggle among Kurdish parties. Otherwise, the contra independence position of Change Movement (Goran) is still obviously perceived.
The disputed areas (mentioned in 140 Article of Iraqi constitution) are mostly controversial. After the liberation of Shingal, as one of the most strategic areas locate in the Kurdistan boarders, the PKK became to be more organised and it has massive impact there, profiting from the Peshmerga forces busyness in the front lines of war and the weakness of PDK and other Kurdistan cadre.
In time the most of the Shengali’s people still living in the camps are supporting the independency. Recently, the PKK confronted another infliction. An agreement has been made with Haider Shasho, a famous Yazidi personality and the commander of Ezidkhan Protection Force, declaring that the force have been officially recognised under the Peshmerga Ministry. Masoud Barzani meeting with Shamar tribe leader was another logical step to convince the Arabs dominating some areas of Nineveh plain (Sahil Nineveh) such as Rabi’a, Zommar …etc.
Positive results are needed from the Kurdish committee sent to Baghdad to negotiate the referendum. The negotiation mostly will be on the disputed lands. Ironically, there are different ideas on Baghdad political street about Kurdistan Independency.
The Prime Minister Abadi assumed that the Iraqi constitution don’t give the right to any entity within the Iraqi borders to have its own state. On other side, the minister of the Foreign Affairs Ibrahim al-Jaafari previously argued that they cannot prevent anyone to have its own state.
And with the case of PMF (Al-Hashd Al-Sha’abi) which is one of the main possible threats to Kurdistan in the near future, the powerful Shiite cleric Muqtatda al-Sadr with the support of the head of Shiite ‘marja’ in Najaf Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani have called Abadi to dissolve the Hashd and stop the Iranian obvious intervention in Iraq.
These antithetic views should be took under consideration in Kurdistan in time that Baghdad cannot be find weaker with the probability of getting strong soon. According to some trustful sources, Iraq assigned about 28 billion dollars from its budget to buy weapons, also it has been provide around 1 billion dollars only to improve the Iraqi army psychologically.